Predicting the Oscars is like trying to psychoanalyze a rotary; it’s clear
where some cars are entering, and it’s apparent where some are leaving, but in
between is a confoundingly hap-hazard system of yielding, stopping, swerving, breaking,
speeding, and honking. It’s the
modern-day labyrinth, the socially applicable maze, and the crossword puzzle of
pauses, blanks, and multi-syllabic slurs.
It’s that damned Rubik’s Cube that’s all solved except for one side,
that 51-card deck, and that game of boggle missing all the vowels. It’s the
rotary of personality. Having said that, however, my view of the Oscars is as
follows; during a trip to Puerto Rico, I watched a man drive into a rotary, swiftly
pull over, park his car in a crevasse in the center, unbuckle his seatbelt, get
out of his car, and simply walk away.
Now that is the Oscars, my
friends, and that guy is the
winner. But who’d have guessed that? (Other
than that guy).
Besides, how is a quasi-anonymous group of voters supposed to accurately
represent the larger whole? Now I don't mean to spill my 'melodrama ink' all
over this, but let's take a quick look; Kate Ward recently reported that
"The Academy Awards chooses its winners based on the votes of a select
group of Hollywood insiders” and continues to note that "According to a
study conducted by The Los Angeles Times, the Academy, which boasts 5,765
members, is 94 percent Caucasian and 77 percent male.” Well My Oh My! Let's cut
to a visual, shall we?
Let's clear something up; that film was amazing and worthy of praise,
nominations, and wins...and the irony strikes my funny bone with a hammer. Ward
also notes that “Only 14 percent of the Academy is younger than 50, and as for
its minority voters: Only 2 percent are African-American, while 2 percent are
Latino." The artistry of this
industry is really becoming black and white, isn’t it? (Yeah that pun was
terrible). In essence, we have a steaming crock-pot of film-makers, viewers,
large sums of cash, bigger sums of investments, more film-makers, judges,
judges who are also filmmakers, TV producers, rating necessities and objectives,
maybe a slightly bias group of voters,
and yes...a sincere celebration for the art-form. This can more aptly be
described as 'Showbiz.'
This profoundly nostalgic year of the Oscars also stands out among many
others for me – not because the films are better, or worse, but rather because
there is a greater gap in my predicted winners and my personal favorites. In other words, the films I believe and
predict will win differ entirely from
the films I believe should win. And so I struggle to divorce my emotions from
my logic (I suppose a more universally existential issue concisely
micro-managing my struggle to accurately predict the Oscars). I first look
objectively at the set of nominees and predict who I believe will win, taking
into account the film/performance itself alongside the political foreplay. I then begin to feel a sense of discontent bubbling
in my stomach, rising into my chest like heartburn, gripping my throat and
forcing me to realize my distinct frustration; that my personal favorites - the
films that have moved me, awed me, and sincerely stood out over all the others
- are almost completely different from my predictions, all across the
board. And so; I predict, I reject, and
subsequently accept. The following are
my logical predictions, with a few un-movable, prideful, hubris-stricken, desired
outcomes over-shadowing my deductive and objective predictions (maybe more than
not!). As this task of predicting the
outcome of a ceremony that amalgamates talent, blurry politics, and an expert
utilization of surprise and shock in the name of publicity and marketing
becomes slightly more complex, apparently so do my transitions…here are the
predictions!
Best Picture – The Artist
Best Director – Michel Hazanavicius
Best Lead Actor – George Clooney
Best Lead Actress – Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer
Best Original Screenplay – Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Descendants
Best Cinematography – The Tree of Life
Best Editing – The Artist
Best Original Score – The Artist
Best Original Song – Man or Muppet
Best Makeup – The Iron Lady
Best Art Direction – The Artist
Best Costume Design – Hugo
Best Visual Effects – Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing – War Horse
Best Sound Editing – War Horse
Best Foreign Language – A Separation
Best Short Live Action – The Shore
Best Animated Short – The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Documentary Short – The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Best Documentary Feature – Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Animated Feature – Rango
